In recent years, the concept of “sustainable tourism” has gained increasing attention in tourism...
The “winter escape” season has always been golden for Southeast Asia: warm weather, affordable costs, and relatively short flights make the region a top pick for travelers from Asia, Europe, and North America. Over the past three years (2023–2025), the travel landscape in Southeast Asia has shifted noticeably - from the post-COVID recovery period, to disruptions caused by political unrest in certain countries. These shifts have redirected international visitor flows and created new opportunities for stable destinations like Vietnam.
This article from Hotel Link reviews key developments over the past three years, assesses the state of Southeast Asia’s tourism industry in 2025 following recent unrest, and highlights the growing wave of travelers turning their attention to Vietnam. All major data points are referenced below for verification.
Tourism in Southeast Asia Post-Pandemic
2023 – The Year of Strong Recovery
2023 marked the first “back-to-normal” year for global tourism after the pandemic. Many Southeast Asian countries saw a sharp rebound in arrivals thanks to lifted travel restrictions, strong stimulus campaigns, and full reopening. Airlines resumed pre-pandemic schedules, promotions surged, and pent-up demand after two years of lockdowns fueled explosive growth.
2024 – Solid Milestones Reached
By 2024, most regional tourism economies had nearly or fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. International arrivals across Southeast Asia rose significantly versus 2022, with tens of millions of travelers recorded. Reports from global agencies confirmed that Asia-Pacific was steadily narrowing the gap to 2019 levels - and Southeast Asia was firmly part of that trend.
2025 – Recovery Continues, but Political Unrest Creates Friction
For much of 2025, recovery momentum continued, with many destinations seeing year-on-year growth in arrivals. However, in the latter half of the year, political unrest - including mass protests and violent clashes in Indonesia - shook traveler confidence. This triggered last-minute cancellations and rerouted flows away from directly affected areas. Outlets like Reuters reported short-term shocks in visitor demand across the region in 2025.
Major Tourism Markets in Focus
Thailand
Thailand, the region’s long-standing tourism powerhouse, welcomed nearly 40 million international visitors in 2019. After post-COVID recovery, numbers remained strong - but cracks appeared in 2025. From January 1 to September 14, 2025, the country recorded about 23 million arrivals, down roughly 7.08% compared to the same period last year. Authorities had to revise their annual forecast from 37 million to 33 million.
Key reasons include:
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Slower economic growth and tighter monetary policies.
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Rising competition from emerging or fast-recovering destinations.
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Security concerns or shifting visa policies affecting inbound demand.
Indonesia
In August - September 2025, Indonesia was hit by major protests and violent clashes (initially sparked by opposition to parliamentary privileges, later escalating into severe unrest). Transportation and tourism services in affected areas were heavily disrupted. Reuters called it the new government’s first major stress test, with significant fallout on trade and tourism. Flights, tours, and bookings were canceled en masse.
Tourism impact included:
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Sharp declines in traveler confidence, with international visitors postponing or rerouting trips.
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Corporate and TMC clients adjusting booking plans.
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Potential ripple effects lasting weeks to months depending on stabilization.
Other Markets (Cambodia, Laos, Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia)
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Cambodia, Laos, Philippines: recovering but vulnerable to regional shocks and travel advisories.
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Singapore: strong rebound thanks to its air hub role and political stability - rarely affected by regional unrest.
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Malaysia: steady recovery led by intra-regional markets, though slower-paced.
Overall, aggregated reports showed Southeast Asia attracting well over 120 million international arrivals in 2024, highlighting strong potential despite localized volatility.
Impacts on the Winter Escape Season
Travel Behavior in Recent Winters
Travelers from colder climates (Europe, North Asia, North America) typically book from October - December for winter getaways between November - March. Post-COVID, early booking patterns have returned but with greater flexibility: more last-minute reservations, a stronger preference for safety, and demand for flexible cancellation and insurance.
How 2025 Unrest Shapes This Season
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Destinations hit by unrest (Indonesia, possibly parts of Thailand) face lower booking volumes for Winter 2025 - 2026.
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Stable alternatives (Vietnam, Singapore, certain Philippine and Malaysian islands, or even Maldives/Sri Lanka for premium markets) stand to gain.
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The advantage lies with destinations that communicate safety clearly, offer direct flights, and market quickly to “rebooked” travelers.
Vietnam in 2025: A Rising Star
Strong Performance So Far
Official data shows Vietnam welcoming nearly 14 million international visitors in the first eight months of 2025, up 21.7% year-on-year. Independent reports note August 2025 alone saw 1.6 - 1.7 million arrivals - a standout result across the region.
Why Vietnam is Well-Positioned
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Political stability compared to unrest elsewhere makes it a safe bet.
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Diverse tourism products: beaches (Phu Quoc, Nha Trang), culture & heritage (Hanoi, Hue), eco & experience travel (Da Lat, Hoi An).
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Improved air connectivity with more direct routes and increased frequencies.
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Competitive costs appealing to both Asian and European “value-for-money” travelers.
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Proactive marketing & promotions, including safety messaging and attractive packages.
Outlook for Winter 2025 - 2026
Vietnam is poised to capture a wave of diverted travelers. To maximize this, both industry and government must act:
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Expand capacity (rooms, services, safety measures).
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Smart pricing for groups and corporate travelers.
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Transparent communication on safety and cancellation policies.
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Seamless experiences with coordination across airlines, OTAs, and local operators.
Risks & Watch-Outs
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Unforeseen disruptions: new unrest, natural disasters, or health crises could quickly reverse flows.
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Service chain stress: if infrastructure isn’t ready, surges in arrivals could harm visitor experiences.
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Overcapacity risks: unmanaged booms could create overcrowding and negative OTA reviews.
Recommendations:
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Strengthen security and communication.
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Maintain flexible pricing and cancellation.
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Prioritize staff training and service quality.
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Engage B2B channels for stable revenue.
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Run fast, targeted marketing to markets shifting away from unstable destinations.
Let's take a look back: Hanoi's National Day Tourism Boom: A Look at the Record-Breaking Holiday
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for Southeast Asia’s Travel Map
The past three years have shown Southeast Asia’s resilience - but also its vulnerability to political and social volatility. In 2025, unrest in certain countries scattered visitor flows, creating space for stable, prepared destinations to step forward.
Vietnam is exceptionally well-positioned to capture this redirected demand. By acting quickly, prioritizing seamless traveler experiences, and building sustainable capacity, Vietnam can turn a short-term opportunity into long-term competitive advantage - cementing its role not just as a temporary substitute, but as a top winter escape destination for the future.
References:
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Reuters. Thailand records 7.1% y/y drop in foreign visitors so far in 2025. Reuters
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Reuters. Police killing sparks Indonesia unrest (Aug 29, 2025). Reuters
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Vietnam National Administration of Tourism. International arrivals statistics (8 months 2025). Du Lịch Việt Nam
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TravelSpan / compendium. Vietnam inbound arrivals first eight months 2025. travelspan.in
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The Outbox / regional recap. Southeast Asia tourism performance 2024. The Outbox Company
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UNWTO / Asia-Pacific reports. recovery indicators (2024 summaries). en.unwto-ap.org
